Verkehr in Shanghai

Our knowledge for your planning

China Economic and Automotive Briefing - Executive Update –
Quarterly report on the short-, medium- and long-term growth of the Chinese economy and the impact on the automotive market. Target Group: Supervisory Boards, CEOs and managers.

China Economic and Commercial Vehicle Briefing - Executive Update –
Quarterly report on the short-, medium- and long-term growth of the Chinese economy and the impact on the commercial vehicle market taking into account the specific conditions that apply to this industry.

„China Early Warning Indicator“ Monthly update
The economic situation in China and regulatory changes have led to a different situation for the OEMs. They review their program plans and cut production for some models. This increasing volatility of the production is a challenge for the short term planning. With our report suppliers are able to see for how many days the production might stop and the number of vehicles that are not produced during this period. Our analysis takes into account all relevant programs in China.

„China New Energy Vehicle Report“
 
Electro-mobility in China: Between high Growth Potential and Regulatory Risks

The market for new electric vehicles (NEV) has been growing fast in China. After the subsidies end in 2021 we will see three phases in which different technologies dominate the NEV market. The market share for EVs will increase slightly until 2020, drop until 2023 and then rise rapidly. PHEVs are a bridge technology and 48V will play an important role for many OEMs in fulfilling the regulation in China.

In our report we layout the political and regulation framework that determines the above described market phases. We comment on new regulation drafts and explain why there is a high regulatory risk. For each OEM we created reasonable game plans for reaching the CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) and the NEV quota. We explain the strategies of the international and Chinese OEM`s and profile 27 of the new entrants. In the profiles we comment on the strategies of the new players.

Besides we have a close look at the battery market which shows alarming parallels to the solar panel industry. No manufacturer is profitable, much overcapacity combined with massive price pressure. With OptimumNano, the third biggest battery manufacturer in China, we describe how a company is driven to the wall. We also give examples how the quickly changing regulatory procedures in China favor the local suppliers. All these factors will lead to a battery market that has all the risks of instability.

In the latest issue of our report we also added a chapter on manufacturers of electric motors in which we describe the main players of this very fragmented market.

Our report includes an excel database for Hybrids, Plug-In Hybrids and Electric Vehicles for the next five years in China.

Our latest report was published in October 2018.

„ASEAN Economic and Automotive Briefing“
 
Strategic outlook of the growth potential especially in times of difficulties in China

Indonesia and Thailand are the main production hubs, while Malaysia has built up capabilities in program engineering. Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines will also be important. Singapore will be the main R&D hub and HQ location with its open economy and world-class IPR protection. Vietnam is excellent for electronics and also for textiles like seat upholstery including export to China. Vietnam will take away a significant manual labor-intensive component production from China. The Philippines are a major wire harness hub for the Japanese and international suppliers for export to China and globally. The Philippines are the „Romania“ of the Japanese.

In general cost is lower in ASEAN than in China. Some Chinese and international suppliers have moved production to Vietnam or the Philippines because of cost. The shortage of engineers and software experts in Europe also drives some suppliers to set up shop in Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines, the latter also because English is widely spoken in these 2 countries. The largest global suppliers are first to move as usual, for example Bosch, Continental and Aptiv.

We forecast the market for light vehicles in ASEAN to grow from 3.3 million in 2018 to about 5.7 million in 2025. Currently the market is dominated by the Japanese OEMs, but there will be more room for other OEMs in future. This is already the case for premium cars, where Mercedes and BMW together have a market of 77% in ASEAN. Once Volkswagen takes ASEAN more seriously, it should be able to carve out a significant market share in this region with a rapidly growing population that is young and getting wealthier over the next 15 to 20 years.

For suppliers the main questions are now:

What are the growth perspectives of each of the 10 nations?
Which consequences might the trade war between China and the US have?
What is the footprint of the OEMs?
What are the strategies and footprints of international suppliers in the ASEAN region?
Are there ways to become part of the Japanese supply chains?

In our new report we answer these questions and give a forecast for the future.

The report includes an outlook on the economic situation of the different countries. It describes the segmentation in each country including share of production by OEM today and gives an overall sales and production forecast by country for the coming five years. The analysis also comprises for each country the OEM profiles including plants and models for domestic sales and export.

The report also focuses on European, American and Japanese suppliers that are active in the ASEAN region with details on location, kind of components manufactured, SOP and size of each location. For each country there is also a map with the locations of the suppliers.

Our latest report was published in October 2018.

„China Connectivity“
 
 
Connectivity is a focal point for Chinese customers. The car buyers are much younger and more internet-friendly. 70 to 90% of the buyers would pay for service. Especially in the area of security and navigation.
In our report we cover the following topics:

  • Profile of the internet players (Baidu, Tencent, Autonavi, Neusoft etc.)
  • Regulation and government drive (China 2025, Internet Plus etc.)
  • The fight for the consumer data in China
  • The role of the government
  • The danger of losing IP because of government intervention
  • Security issues in China
  • Strategies of the OEMs
  • Connectivity solutions now and outlook
  • User requirements in China vs. Europe and the US
  • Mobility Provider like Uber etc.
  • Consumer trends

Frequency: The report is updated twice a year in pdf-format.

„China Automated Driving“
 
Automated Driving is becoming increasingly important in China. 93% of Chinese are interested in this topic. The driving style as well as the infrastructure in China have specific characteristics that influence the solutions.
In our report we cover the following topics:

  • Connected and offline
  • Regulation and government influence
  • ADAS components penetration now and forecast
  • User requirements
  • Roadmap to fully automated driving (Level 4) in China
  • Insurance perspective
  • OEM strategies for China

Frequency: The report is updated twice a year in pdf-format.



Workshop
„Growth Plan China“

It’s starting to sink in, what the “new normal” means for China. The Chinese government tries to rebalance, deleverage and keep growth up all at the same time. This impossible approach will lead to even more volatility for the car industry.

Our workshops cover the following topics: :

What economic development do we forecast short-, medium- and longterm?

How high is the risk of a sudden crisis?

Which OEMs are better or worse prepared for the upcoming volatility?

Which clients fit best to your strategy?

Is it reasonable to increase capacity? If yes, where?

How can you make sure that your profit does not sink too much?

How do you prevent to work for OEMs that generate losses?

What is your ideal customer mix?

Other possible questions in the field of risk analysis:

What happens if the joint venture rule ends?



We would be pleased to send you samples and a quote. Alongside the regular written information we are at the disposal of our customers and prospective customers in an advisory capacity for strategic queries on the automotive market.